Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXUS64 KLUB 042315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

 - Isolated to scattered storms will be possible across the
   Caprock later this afternoon and evening with the potential for
   strong wind gusts up to 75 mph.

 - Chances for precipitation will continue almost every afternoon
   and evening next week.


 - Hot temperatures in the 90s to triple digits expected everyday
   next week. Possible Heat Advisory Highs towards the end of the
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The 4th remains on track for a hot day with thunderstorm chances in
the evening. Current water vapor imagery shows upper ridging across
southern CONUS. Thickness increases due to the ridging will keep the
warming trend through today. Current surface observations as of 9:30
AM show temperatures are already in the 80s across the region.
Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s across the Caprock
and just below Heat Advisory triple digits off the Caprock. Current
southwesterly surface flow is expected to shift to the southeast
early this afternoon as a lee trough tightens across CO and NM. At
the same time, a diffused outflow boundary is currently pushing
across the Texas Panhandle. Following a pleasant, but hot day,
thunderstorm chances return this evening. An embedded upper
shortwave will pass across the Texas Panhandle later this afternoon
and evening providing upper forcing. Low-level forcing will come
from decent moisture convergence due to the moist southeasterly
upslope flow as well as the diffused boundary traveling south across
the Texas Panhandle. CAMs indicate isolated thunderstorms developing
along this boundary across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
later this afternoon before quickly dissipating. Moisture
convergence this evening will bring another round of scattered
thunderstorms across eastern NM and expand into our northwestern
zones of the CWA. Main hazard expected will be strong wind gusts as
inverted-v soundings indicate much of these thunderstorms will be
elevated. Can also expect gusty outflows as these thunderstorms will
most likely be short-lived with weak shear (around 20 kts) hindering
updraft growth. These thunderstorms also have the potential to
produce downbursts as current soundings indicate DCAPE values up to
1800 J/kg. With this many factors contributing to gusty winds, we
can expect strong gusts up to 70-75 mph in the vicinity of these
thunderstorms and outflows. If any thunderstorm is able to overcome
the weak shear, at most we could see up to quarter size hail,
however the potential for severe hail is low. Locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible, especially in the vicinity of any downbursts.

Thunderstorms are expected to linger across the far southwestern
Texas Panhandle and northwestern portions of the South Plains
overnight. A slightly cooler overnight is expected compared to
previous nights, at least across northwestern zones where the storms
will prevail. This will give a wide range of lows in the lower to
mid-60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s to
lower 80s across the southern Rolling Plains. We will see a small
break in storms early Sunday morning. Upper ridging will continue to
dominate the southwestern CONUS as the same time a low-amplitude
positively tilted trough will pass across the Central Plains. An
embedded shortwave between the two upper disturbances will bring
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the region through much
of Sunday. CAMs indicate isolated storms will develop across the
Caprock and southern areas off the Caprock early Sunday afternoon
and expand southeast across and out of the forecast area. Another
diffused boundary will move in from NM during the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary before expanding east to southeast across the Caprock.
Very similar to the thunderstorm activity from this past week,
thunderstorms are expected to be elevated. Main hazard expected
would be strong winds from outflows and downbursts with soundings
indicating DCAPE values up to 1400 J/kg. Severe hail potential is
low, however cannot rule out up to quarter size hail. Locally heavy
rainfall with potential for flooding is also possible. With much of
the day storm potential, temperatures will slightly cool for Sunday,
however highs are expected to remain in the 90s across much of the
region with triple digits still possible across the southern Rolling
Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The long term forecast will start off with a hot Monday with slight
thunderstorm chances later in the day. Another embedded upper
shortwave will pass across the forecast area Monday bringing another
round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains through the
evening. However, models indicate much of the activity will be
across northeastern NM with the slight chance of expanding into our
region. We will see a break from daily storm chances on Tuesday as
models have now backed off on storm potential compared to previous
forecasts. Alas, NBM has thunderstorm chances each afternoon and
evening beginning Wednesday through the end of the week. However,
models seem to go back and forth on thunderstorm chances through the
weekend, therefore could expect continue changes for future
forecasts. Upper ridging will continue to dominate southern CONUS
through the week keeping temperatures hot with possible Heat
Advisory highs towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through
the remainder of the period. There is a small chance VCTS creeps
into the KPVW terminal late this evening, although confidence in
this remains too low for a TAF mention.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12