Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

442
FXUS64 KLUB 250527
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1127 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

 - Hot, dry, and breezy conditions expected Christmas day with
   record breaking warmth expected.

 - Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Thursday
   afternoon across the far southwestern and central TX Panhandle.

 - Unseasonably warm through Saturday, cooling down to start next
   week with the potential for wintry precipitation Sunday night
   into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Similar to last night, the northward expansion of low-level moisture
from the Big Country into the Caprock region will result in rising
dewpoints across the FA. Dewpoints progged in the upper 50s and 60s
suggest the potential for at least some patchy fog across our most
southern row of counties, with a few localized dense patches not
completely out of the question. Visibilities should remain above 1/4
SM so will opt out of any dense fog headlines. In classic West Texas
fashion, Christmas Day will not feel much like a cold winters day,
instead it will feel like a warm spring day as anomalously warm
temperatures continue beneath a persistent upper level ridge.
Despite the ridge axis shifting slightly east, in response to an
upper level shortwave moving onshore the PacNW, thickness along with
height values will remain near stationary to previous day. Meanwhile
at the surface, southwest winds will prevail while becoming breezy
as a lee trough over southeastern CO dives into the northern Texas
Panhandle. As a result, we will begin to see the pressure gradient
tighten across the region which will allow for wind speeds to
increase around 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible. The
west-southwesterly component to the winds from the surface to mid-
levels will work to transport WAA into the region and with 850 mb
temperatures around 20C, we can expect afternoon highs to climb to
record breaking territory in the upper 70s to upper 80s. As
mentioned, previous records at KLBB (76 degrees in 1955) and KCDS
(77 degrees in 1971) look to be smashed with the forecasted high at
KLBB of 83 degrees and 86 degrees at KCDS.

Although quiet weather is expected, there remains the threat of
elevated to near critical fire weather concerns this afternoon,
primarily across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle. Across the
aforementioned area, wind maxima`s will be set up, allowing for the
strongest winds around 20 to 25 mph to persist. Which combined with
the record breaking warmth and drier conditions with minimum RH
values in the 20th percentile will drive the threat of fire
danger. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 10AM
CST until 6PM CST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The upper level ridge will continue to translate east through the
beginning of the extended, with similar warm and dry conditions
expected to persist Friday and Saturday. By the start of the week
the upper trough over NW CONUS will translate east through the
Canadian provinces, while a secondary trough feature near the base
of the main trough tracks from the Four Corners into the Central
Plains. As a result, the surface low over southeastern CO will shift
into the Southern Plains, allowing for an associated FROPA with the
upper trough to pass through the area Sunday. Models continue to
provide different solutions on timing, continuing to suggest a later
arrival compared to what we saw this time yesterday. However, given
the forecasted strength of the front, there is a chance that the
FROPA arrives earlier than what guidance suggest. Nonetheless, highs
Sunday will range quite a bit across the FA with cooler highs in the
50s and 60s across our more northwestern counties and in the 70s
across out southeastern counties. This cooler airmass looks to
remain in place Monday, as thickness and heights decrease with the
base of the shortwave trough moving through, in addition to the
expectation of lingering cloud cover. Similar to the previous
forecast, chances for winter precipitation continue to dwindle with
each run with the best chance for any precipitation remaining across
the southwestern South Plains. In fact, deterministic guidance looks
to be in somewhat better agreement regarding evolution of the
trough, favoring the drier GFS solution from previous days.
Ensembles also seem to be favoring this solution, with probabilities
nearly halved from what we saw yesterday. Given this event is still
a few days out, will maintain slight chance PoPs across the
aforementioned area but I would not hold my breath on any
precipitation chances. By Monday the surface high over eastern NM
will track southward into the Big Country, which will likely limit
any precipitation anyways, with a dry forecast in place for the
remainder of the week. Despite the decrease in PoPs, cooler weather
will stick around through mid-week. With highs near seasonal normals
in the 50s, before climbing back above normal in the 60s through
the end of next week as upper level ridging moves back overhead and
southwest surface flow develops in response to lee troughing over SE
CO.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

There is a chance of low CIGS/visbys moving into the area from the
south early Thursday morning. The best chances of any IFR flight
conditions will be at KLBB but any mention was left out of the TAF
at the moment due to low probability. Winds will remain out of the
southwest for the duration of the TAF period, but will become breezy
by late morning at all TAF sites.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01